another example of vol goggles

I saw this on Kalshi back on 4/25:

Do you interpret that as bullish?

Simmer on it a bit.

I’ll come back to it in a sec but before that I want to point out that it reminds me of this tweet:

In both the Kalshi market and the tweet a normal person sees a delta bid.

In both cases, I (and most option traders probably) see a vol bid.

For the tweet, it’s all explained in one-touch.

Why does the Kalshi market look like a vol bid to me?

Look at my gut reflex to the Kalshi quote in this tweet. The answer lies is in the first thing I asked Grok.

I’m exhaustingly repetitive in trying to advocate for seeing the world with a vol lens because at its core it’s a prompt to think about risk and its price.

But ya know, maybe also just ignore it — BTFD and carry on is an American birthright. Anything that keeps you from interpreting information as bullish should be burned for warmth so feel free to print a stack of moontowers like this one and light a match. Don’t worry, I am pathologically unable to take offense anyway.