Money Math

Kelly Criterion — Cheatsheet Derivation

Kelly Criterion — Cheatsheet Derivation Step 1 One Period Expectancy E = pB − q where p = win probability,…

3 days ago

“end behavior”

Alex is an options trader you should follow in case he ever tweets a lot. Because he doesn’t, when he…

5 days ago

Variance & Covariance Cheat Sheet

Variance & Covariance Cheat Sheet Starting points (where every derivation begins) Everything below is derived from these definitions. They're the…

1 week ago

after this post you will be sizing bets in your head

One of the most important concepts in risk-taking is bet sizing. Which is unfortunate because people are quite bad at…

2 weeks ago

stock-bond correlation

Return Stacked’s RSSB gives you a dollar of global equities and a dollar of Treasuries on the same dollar of…

1 month ago

collar shopping

At the end of July, Dean Curnutt tweeted: The thread should sound familiar. Weeks earlier, Dean tweeted about SNDK vols presenting…

1 month ago

How I Teach Middle Schoolers To Build Stock Portfolios

If you construct a portfolio from 2 stocks and one is $100 and the other is $10, buying a share…

2 months ago

Delta-hedged risk reversals

We recently added multi-leg support to our Attribution Visualizer, our tool for allowing you to track an option contract’s p/l…

3 months ago

The Scaling Laws of Risk-Reduction

In a misconception about harvesting volatility, you learn that you do NOT need to scalp the gamma to isolate the vol…

3 months ago

hurst

In a random walk where trials are independent, variance scales linearly with time. Since standard deviation is the square root…

3 months ago