Newsletter Thoughts

the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex

A traditional way to think of a stock price is the expected value of its future prices weighted by their…

6 hours ago

Moontower #293

Friends, The largest firms in the world's capex doesn’t lie. They’re all-in on AGI. Since the so-called hyperscalers are also…

6 hours ago

the art of paranoia

This is a fun one. A good friend and mentor from the pit sent me this (lightly edited and hyperlinked):…

3 days ago

deworsification?

Let's start here... Essential Wisdom from Twenty Personal Investing Classics (6 min read) Elm Wealth distills investing lessons from 20 classics,…

1 week ago

Using AI to build stuff

I really liked this listicle by Sasha Chapin: 50 things I know I was gonna do my usual thing of…

1 week ago

Moontower #292

Friends, I really liked this listicle by Sasha Chapin: 50 things I know I was gonna do my usual thing…

1 week ago

why poker is used to train traders

This video is the best articulation of why poker is used to train traders. https://youtu.be/uFyoIeBElQc From the description: Jerrod Ankenman,…

2 weeks ago

The overfit sauna

The phrase “studies show...” is almost always followed by bs. To understand why, I’ll point you to a post by…

2 weeks ago

Moontower #291

Friends, The phrase “studies show...” is almost always followed by bs. To understand why, I’ll point you to a post…

2 weeks ago

the messiness of options in the real-world

Recently, I’ve been writing a lot about option funding — implied rates, reversal/conversions, and financing stock positions, and even a…

3 weeks ago