Newsletter Thoughts

Prediction Market Arbitrage: Using Option Chains to Find Mispriced Bets

Horse tweeted: The moment you see a bet on a platform like Kalshi, Polymarket, or the soon-to-be Robinhood+SIG exchange, your…

11 months ago

“dancing animals”

Option trader and professional shtpoaster P4 tweeted this quote I’ve been sitting on a for a month: Kurt Vonnegut tells his wife…

11 months ago

Math Sympathy

My wife started the Math Academy diagnostic on Sunday night. She couldn’t remember that if you raise a number to the 0th…

11 months ago

a financial death wish

A friend was asking me how to deal with a loved one who had put nearly all of his assets…

11 months ago

slow is smooth and smooth is fast

I really hope to be helpful today so bear with me as this isn’t the rosiest way to begin. This…

11 months ago

Moontower#294

Friends, I really hope to be helpful today so bear with me as this isn’t the rosiest way to begin.…

11 months ago

Options on Levered ETFs (Part 2)

Last week, in part 1, we backfilled prerequisite knowledge: Distance in return space: equal percentage moves aren’t equal in compounded or…

11 months ago

Option on Levered ETFs (Part 1)

“They” say human labor will be irrelevant by 2027. By then, any business you can think will be solved by…

11 months ago

“trader” is a uselessly broad term

Moontower.ai Announcement The only sale moontower.ai has per year is underway. A 20% discount applied to all new plans as…

11 months ago

the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex

A traditional way to think of a stock price is the expected value of its future prices weighted by their…

11 months ago