Money Math

Pricing 0dte’s

On the last day of November, Kevin bought a bunch of cheap SPY options about 10 minutes to the close and scored.…

10 months ago

The Coastline Paradox in Financial Markets

I started researching/writing this post about a month ago. It took a strange arc. It began with me wondering about…

11 months ago

Positive delta puts

Yesterday in “trader” is a uselessly broad term, I boosted several of Euan Sinclair’s insights about option trading. I saved one…

11 months ago

Moontower Binomial Tree Explainer

Last week, in American options are not vanilla, we covered not only the concept of early exercise for American options, but…

11 months ago

American options are not vanilla

I’ve always found it amusing that the most commonly traded options, American-style equity options contracts, are considered “vanilla”. Because they…

11 months ago

Prediction Market Arbitrage: Using Option Chains to Find Mispriced Bets

Horse tweeted: The moment you see a bet on a platform like Kalshi, Polymarket, or the soon-to-be Robinhood+SIG exchange, your…

12 months ago

Options on Levered ETFs (Part 2)

Last week, in part 1, we backfilled prerequisite knowledge: Distance in return space: equal percentage moves aren’t equal in compounded or…

12 months ago

Option on Levered ETFs (Part 1)

“They” say human labor will be irrelevant by 2027. By then, any business you can think will be solved by…

12 months ago

the arbitrage reflex is more profitable than the opinion reflex

A traditional way to think of a stock price is the expected value of its future prices weighted by their…

12 months ago

the art of paranoia

This is a fun one. A good friend and mentor from the pit sent me this (lightly edited and hyperlinked):…

12 months ago