Positive delta puts in the wild: Avis stock (CAR)

Remember that chart of CAR last week.

(Matt Levine wrote about the fundamentals of the squeeze on 4/15)

So this was Thursday:

Also, note that the change in the basis per expiry increased beyond October, meaning the implied carry cost is no longer negative.

When a stock is hard-to-borrow, its options will imply a future price below the spot price, since a market-maker that is getting saddled with long calls, and short puts from the flow must short shares to hedge. The cost to borrow those shares is reflected in the synthetic futures (ie the option combo of long call/short put on the same strike).

The carry rate increased on Thursday, which means puts fell relative to calls on the same strike, as presumably the borrow will loosen as the squeeze subsides. This was another headwind for people who bought downside puts to bet on CAR coming back to earth. Far OTM December puts, like the 70 strike, actually declined in value on the sell-off. A classic example of what I call positive delta puts.