etf fair value

I replaced my IBIT shares into long calls when BTC vol got crushed this week while selling my VIX futures which held up quite well on the equity rally, a possibility I suggested when I explained that the elevated but also flat term structure of VIX suggested vol was here to stay in 2025. From vol speed round:

As I was looking at IBIT I thought I’d share a habit I picked up from distant past of ETF arbitrage — estimating the prem/discount baked into the ETF price I’m about to trade:

1. Go to the IShares web page to grab 3 values (highlighted)

2. Enter them in my spreadsheet to compute the ratio of NAV to BTC price. The cells with the box around them are via the previous close values. I then apply the fair ratio to the live BTC price compute IBIT’s live premium or discount.