One of the memorable ideas from Peter Thiel’s Zero To One is the 2×2 grid with quadrants of definite/indefinite + optimism/pessimism.
Luke Burgis has a concise discussion of it in Are you a Definite or Indefinite Optimist, or Pessimist?.
Thiel laments the influence of either type of “indefinite” mindset.
Luke agrees:
This also comes down to the key question of agency. The “indefinite” doomers and optimists lack a sense that they are personally responsible for anything, and so are less likely to contribute to bringing about the future they believe will happen.
This means there is an aspect of reflexivity involved, of course. Perception creates reality. If enough people are indefinite optimists, then nothing will happen (because not enough people will take concrete action) and the future will actually become worse than the present.
“Indefinite optimism” leads to option hoarding. I’ve written about this in The Option Cage (12 min read). The popularity of that post affirms the sense that we are intrinsically repelled by optionality mindsets propagating beyond the realm of tactics and into a way of life. The seduction of such nihilism is liberating yourself from specific commitments. It’s a way of lowering the stakes for your ego. It’s a pre-excuse. You can always hide behind “I never went all-in”.
But there’s no reward without risk.
Sure, there are lucky exceptions. Probably more than ever these days if we’re being honest. You can become a rich cog in a wildly profitable business. You ride a great wave, get overpaid considering how little risk you take, and now complain that you make $500k a year and feel broke. That’s the universe reminding you that maybe your fat paycheck is downstream of the same forces that make everything feel so expensive. It’s tied together. You can’t with a straight face think that your pay is justified while the inflation in your consumption basket is not.
(Yes, you work hard. Yes, your skills might be more scarce than what it takes for a typical job. And you are very much rewarded for that. But risk is required for a truly asymmetric outcome.)
Risk requires uncomfortable levels of commitment. Risk, or even better, “accountability” (from the most popular twitter thread I’ve ever seen), is incompatible with an appetite whose primary macronutrient is optionality. That friend that always bails on their plans sees all their commitments as options not futures. The plan was just an insurance policy against “something not better coming along”.
This brings me to today’s read:
Committed: How to give a damn about your work (7 min read)
by Rick Foerster
I’ve spoken to Rick. He walks the walk. This article starts strong and gets better:
In an apathetic world, full of short-termism and an addiction to the slow drip of incentives, the treasured virtue is commitment.
We are surrounded by conditional people, who need to “be engaged” or receive the whip of stimulation to get moving. They wait, until the move is obvious and success certain.
But we unlock the best in life when we become committed, even in the face of uncertainty.
Further reading:
- I’ve excerpted one of my favorite antidotes to nihilistic option mindsets from